Daniel Jones could end up with a lot of yards through the air
Heading into the upcoming NFL season, Pro Football Focus decided to write up an article giving their thoughts on which quarterbacks are good bets when it comes to the over/under on passing yards.
One of the prop bets that people can make heading into the season is whether or not New York Giants’ starting quarterback Daniel Jones will throw for over 3,800.5 yards during the 2021 season.
From the sound of things, some oddsmakers believes Jones will throw for over 3,800.5 yards and there are of course some who don’t believe he will. When it comes PFF, they believe it’s a safe bet to go with the over.
DANIEL JONES OVER 3800.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Saquon Barkley is back from injury, which means no team added more to its skill position room than the Giants. The splashy free agent signing of Kenny Golladay gives Daniel Jones a receiver capable of leading the position in receiving yards. Everyone is now aware of Golladay’s contested-catch ability, as he’s generated the sixth-best contested catch rate percentage since entering the league in 2017. Separation is always a concern, but given that Golladay is 14th in deep ball percentage, his low open-target percentage is justified by his high average target depth.
Golladay looks like the perfect downfield threat for Jones, who absolutely needs it after throwing past the sticks on just 38% of his attempts last season. That put him in the same range as Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Brees. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has to understand that the Giants’ offense needs to be able to attack with downfield targets. This looks to be the priority given their offseason acquisitions.
New York also plays in what should again be the NFL’s weakest division, with only one truly elite defense in the NFC East. Every secondary unit has an opponent-adjusted coverage grade in the bottom half of the NFL, which should produce plenty of fireworks in inter-division matchups. All the pieces are in place for Jones to take a significant step in Year 3. As such, the best approach is to take Daniel Jones OVER 3800.5 passing yards.
With all of the new offensive weapons that the Giants now have along with running back Saquon Barkley coming back after missing most of last season with a torn ACL, if I was a betting man I would certainly take the over.
Another thing that’s in Jones’ favor is the fact that he’s now heading into his second season under offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. He should be a lot more comfortable with his offense.
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