Former President Donald Trump has surpassed President Joe Biden in a national general election poll conducted by NBC News.
The poll, released on Sunday, indicates a narrow lead for Trump at 46%, with Biden trailing at 44%. Notably, this marks the first time in over a dozen polls that Trump has outperformed Biden.
Trump Surges in 18-34 Age Group, Defying Election Trends
One striking aspect of the poll is Trump’s significant lead among younger voters (ages 18 to 34), where he holds a 46% to 42% advantage over Biden. This demographic shift is particularly noteworthy as younger voters favored Biden by approximately 26 points in the 2020 election.
The survey also reveals a decline in approval for President Biden, especially among young voters. Only 31% of young voters approve of Biden’s job performance, a stark drop from 46% in September. This decline may be linked to dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, with a notable 70% of younger voters expressing disapproval.
The poll further highlights divisions within the Democratic Party on the issue of Israel’s actions, with 51% believing Israel has been too aggressive and 27% justifying the Jewish state’s retaliatory actions.
Trump Edges Ahead of Biden in Latest NBC Poll
In terms of overall job performance, the poll records a low point for Biden, with only 40% of registered voters approving, compared to 57% who disapprove. Biden’s foreign policy approval stands at 33%, down 8 percentage points from September, while his economic stewardship has a 38% approval rating, up by 1 percentage point.
Beyond the national landscape, Trump appears to be leading in polls for the 2024 presidential race, both nationally and in battleground states. In the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling, Trump is ahead by 1.6 percentage points.
A Stack Data Strategy survey of 15,000 people also found Trump leading in the Electoral College.
The upcoming election, scheduled for November 5, 2024, is still a year away. Despite the polls indicating Trump’s advantage, Biden’s campaign team has been downplaying the significance of these early predictions.
The NBC poll also gauged support for potential 2024 GOP rivals, with Trump commanding 58% support, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 18%, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley at 13%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 3%.
The survey, conducted from November 10-14, involved 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Subset analyses for Republican and Democratic primary voters had margin of errors of 5.5 and 5.6 percentage points, respectively.